The Eye of the Storm: Why Supply Chain Leaders Must Rethink Resilience in 2026
By Raymon Krishnan, FALA, FCILT, CLP
Introduction: The Illusion of Stability
After years of relentless shocks—from the pandemic to geopolitical conflicts—the logistics industry finally caught its breath in 2024. Freight rates steadied, warehouse space normalised, and capacity constraints loosened. For many, it felt like the sector was returning to something resembling “business as usual” – and unfortunately, people have short memories.
To many, the pandemic is a distant memory and many would also have forgotten that in 2019, the global economy was already in a synchronised slowdown and towards the end of 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had downgraded growth to less than 3 percent – its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.
At that time, growth was weakened by rising trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions. It was estimated that the US-China trade tensions alone would cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8 percent by 2020.
Growth was also being weighed down by country-specific factors in several emerging market economies, and by structural forces, such as low productivity growth and aging demographics in advanced economies.
The weakness in growth was driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods. All this sounds too familiar and could be even be how 2025 is described except for the fact that we now have conflicts to add to this equation.
The industry is entering an era defined not by stability, but by persistent uncertainty. Economic headwinds, tariff wars, climate disruptions, and technological change will test even the most seasoned supply chain professionals.
Uncertainty is no longer an exception—it is the operating environment.”
The Fragile Calm: Geopolitics at Play
While 2024 offered temporary relief, volatility never really left.
- Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine disrupted major trade routes.
- Climate events, from Gulf of Mexico hurricanes to Brazilian droughts, added pressure.
- New tariff escalations between the U.S. and China and U.S. and practically every country it trades with are forcing economies to redraw trade maps.
The clear message? Supply Chain leaders can no longer design for stability. They must design for disruption and perhaps evolution?
Sector by Sector: Winners, Losers, and Shifts
Air Freight: From Lift-Off to Levelling Out
After booming in 2024, air cargo faces slower growth in 2026. The removal of de minimis exemptions is reducing demand for small express shipments, forcing a pivot to bulk contracts.
- Threat: Demand slowdown, evolving trade lanes and lane pairings
- Opportunity: Sustainable aircraft, drones, and long-term shipper contracts.
In 2026, innovation in air cargo is not optional—it’s survival.”
Parcel and Last Mile: The Amazon Effect
E-commerce remains strong, but competition is fierce. Amazon’s logistics dominance continues to reset expectations. SHEIN and Temu and all the other platforms are constantly evolving their business models.
Carriers must carefully segment offerings—not everyone wants same-day, and not everyone will pay for it. The winners will balance speed, cost, and customer experience.
3PLs: From Providers to Partners
Third-party logistics is enjoying a renaissance. With tariff and geopolitical uncertainty, shippers need 3PLs not just for execution but for intelligence—AI-driven demand planning, automated fulfilment, and analytics that boost resilience.
Can 3PL’s evolve to provide more than just execution?”
Freight Forwarding: Consolidate and Digitise
Forwarders face heavy pressure from tariffs, reshoring, and customer demands for transparency. Consolidation is reshaping the market. Those who digitise compliance, capacity, and visibility will thrive; laggards risk irrelevance.
Ocean Freight: Stability Today, Volatility Tomorrow
Rates stabilized in 2024, but sustainability mandates and tariff escalations will continue to disrupt in 2026. Investments in green fuels, slow steaming, and AI-driven optimisation will be crucial.
Trucking: Rising Costs, New Tech Lifelines
Vehicle costs are climbing due to tariffs and there are labour shortages in many countries. To stay afloat, carriers must embrace autonomous fleets, AI-driven routing, and predictive maintenance to cut costs and improve resilience.
Rail: The Quiet Resurgence
Rail continues to grow modestly, boosted by nearshoring and U.S. manufacturing.
Partnerships with ocean, air and road networks and transloading operators could make rail a cornerstone of more resilient supply chains.
Warehousing: Efficiency, Not Expansion
While stable, warehousing faces cost pressure and labour challenges. Automation and smarter inventory planning will be key to navigating tariff disruptions.
Cross-Cutting Forces: Sustainability & Technology
Two universal disruptors are reshaping every logistics subsector:
- Sustainability as ROI, not PR.
- Electric trucks, low-carbon fuels, emissions dashboards.
- ESG is now a must-have in RFPs, not a nice-to-have.
- Digital Transformation as Growth Enabler.
- Predictive demand planning.
- Real-time visibility and emissions tracking.
- Network optimisation powered by data.
Stop treating technology as a cost centre—treat it as a growth enabler.”
Strategic Network Shifts: Supply Chains in the C-Suite
Supply chains are no longer a back-office concern—they’re a boardroom priority.
- Companies are nearshoring and diversifying suppliers to mitigate risk.
- M&A activity is high, but success hinges on rapid integration to capture synergies.
- Continuous redesign is becoming standard—resilience is now a living strategy, not a one-off project.
Forget about designing the ‘best’ Supply Chain. Supply Chains need to be designed in line with an organisations strategic objectives.”
What Leaders Must Do Now
The biggest mistake leaders can make is assuming the worst is behind them. Volatility is here to stay.
Here’s the 2026 playbook:
- Build Flexibility: Scenario planning, optionality, digital twinning, digital platforms.
- Invest with Intent: Sustainability and tech tied to measurable ROI.
- Plan for Tariffs: Don’t treat tariffs as noise—build them into long-term strategy.
- Elevate Supply Chains: Make logistics a strategic weapon at the C-suite level.
Conclusion: The Future Belongs to the Adaptive
The year ahead won’t reward size—it will reward adaptability. Supply Chain Leaders who embrace volatility, digitise aggressively and treat sustainability as strategy will thrive.
The has also been a lot of hullabaloo that AI would replace people. Yes, people who fail to adapt and how to use AI (as a tool) are at risk of being replaced but there is still a significant skills, knowledge and gap in critical and strategic thinking amongst supply chain professionals and individuals who possess these skills will continue to be in demand.
The calm of 2024 wasn’t the end of disruption—it was merely the eye of the storm. The question for logistics leaders is simple: are you ready for what comes next?
The winners of 2025 won’t be the biggest—they’ll be the fastest to adapt.”
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dr. Raymon Krishnan
President
The Logistics and Supply Chain Management Society
Dr. Raymon Krishnan is the President of the Logistics & Supply Chain Management Society (LSCMS) with over 25 years of experience in global supply chain and logistics operations. He has held senior roles across multinational companies and advises on supply chain strategy, compliance, and trade. A regular speaker at industry events, Dr. Krishnan is widely recognised for his leadership in advancing supply chain professionalism in the Asia-Pacific region.
