Airfreight Rate Respite for Manufacturers

The airfreight industry is experiencing a downward trend, largely due to the ending of the de minimis entry for low-value parcel shipments from China, Canada, and Mexico. For the past two years, air cargo, particularly e-commerce shipments from China, has seen a significant 12% growth, driven by the surge in online shopping. However, this growth is expected to slow, with projections indicating a normalisation to 5% year-over-year growth. In January 2025, the industry saw only a 2% to 3% increase, signalling potential contraction ahead.

Airfreight rates are also reflecting this decline. For example, in February, the cost of shipping from Shanghai to the US dropped by 29%, falling to $3.23 per kilogram. Similarly, the Shanghai to Europe route saw a 2% decrease, with rates at $3.86 per kilogram. On a regional level, the rates from Northeast Asia to North America fell by 17%.

These trends indicate that the rapid growth in air cargo is slowing, possibly signalling a shift in how global shipments are being managed. With e-commerce demand stabilising and regulatory changes affecting shipping costs, businesses may need to adjust their logistics strategies to remain competitive in an evolving market.